Twice in the space of 48 hours, Israeli Air Force pilots took off on historic missions into the unknown.

The mission that took place on Shabbat afternoon was the first Israeli air strike in Yemen, carried out in retaliation for the Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv which killed one civilian early on Friday morning. The Houthis don’t have an air force of their own but they do have a range of anti-aircraft batteries. Besides, any complex military operation 1,000 miles from Israel’s borders comes with a long list of things that can go badly and deadly wrong.

A man walks across from a raging fire at oil storage tanks a day after Israeli strikes on the port of Yemen's Huthi-held city of Hodeida on July 21, 2024. Yemen's Huthi rebels on July 21 promised a "huge" retaliation against Israel following a deadly strike on the port of Hodeida, as regional fallout widens from months of war in Gaza. (Photo by AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)

The mission which took off on Monday morning was another matter altogether. From the pilots’ perspective, it was pretty straightforward. Knaf Zion (Wing of Zion), the new prime ministerial jet, may have flown first 24 years ago, but it has undergone a complete refurbishment at Israel Aerospace Industries and is now as good as new. The flight route from Ben Gurion Airport to Joint Base Andrews in Maryland is also pretty standard.

What made this visit by Benjamin Netanyahu to the US historic wasn’t that he was about to break Winston Churchill’s record and address a joint session of Congress for the fourth time – that is just a number derived from political detail – but the fact no Israeli prime minister has ever set out for Washington with such uncertainty over which American leaders he was about to meet and under what circumstances.

As this column is being written, it still is far from certain that Netanyahu will get to see President Joe Biden, who is recovering from a bout of Covid and planning his address to the nation on his decision to drop his bid for reelection. There are unconfirmed reports he is to meet Vice President Kamala Harris, now the almost certain Democratic nominee and perhaps the next president. But even if that happens, she is not going to be sitting behind him in congress as he delivers his speech in her capacity as president of the senate. That is already a snub.

Then there is perhaps the unknown that most worries Netanyahu. He doesn’t know if he will get to meet the former and perhaps future president Donald Trump, who has refused to speak to him for the past three-and-a-half years. Trump was angered by Netanyahu’s congratulation call to Biden, after his victory in the 2020 election, which Trump wrongly claims was “stolen” from him. Will he be forced to make some kind of gesture to win back Trump’s affections that will be seen as offensive by the current administration, which still has six months to go… and, who knows, by the next administration?

Of course, by the time you read this column, some of these questions may have been answered. But that isn’t how prime ministerial trips are supposed to work. A leader’s time is valuable. Especially a wartime leader. Surely it would have made sense for Netanyahu to postpone the trip the moment it became unclear whether Biden could meet him. But no one in his entourage seems to have dared make that suggestion.

The uncharitable view is that Mr and Mrs Netanyahu were determined to finally use the new plane they have been working on for so many years (on which the Israeli taxpayer has shelled out over £150 million, twice the original budget) and the possibility of a meeting with Trump with in Florida just happened to coincide with the 33rd birthday of their exiled son Yair, who has been spending the war in Miami. But why be uncharitable?

So why is Netanyahu going to Washington if he isn’t even assured of a meeting with the president and the potential future presidents? There is of course the historic speech to Congress. But even those who believe Netanyahu’s famous powers of rhetoric can shift American policy will have to admit that it may not get the attention he is hoping for, with Biden making his own historic address to the nation just a few hours later and with Washington consumed by the political drama.

Strangely, Netanyahu’s first meeting in Washington wasn’t with Americans but with the former hostages and families of hostages who flew there (some of them with him on Knaf Zion). It didn’t go well. They weren’t interested in hearing about the planned contents of his speech. Instead they demanded he go ahead with the ceasefire agreement with Hamas that would secure the release of the remaining 120 hostages held in Gaza, only around half of whom are still assumed to be alive.

Noa Argamani, one of the four hostages rescued in an IDF operation last month, said to Netanyahu that one of the hardest moments for her in over nine months of captivity was when she heard him saying on the radio that the war would continue for a long while. She spoke of how two hostages with her had been killed and said: “We need to get them home before it’s too late, they are suffering and dying.” Netanyahu, who had rushed to the hospital to have his photo taken with Argamani on the day of her rescue, may regret trying to create a second photo opportunity with her in Washington.

Members of his entourage spoke in recent days of how the trip to Washington would be an opportunity to remind Israelis back home of the personal support Netanyahu has in America, and that only he can harness it for the sake of Israel. Perhaps. But it isn’t looking that way right now. Unlike the pilots who flew to Yemen and returned home safely after destroying their targets, the mission to America so far isn’t going nearly as well as planned.